On Saturday, Kurds head to the polls, disillusioned with the political elites who led their failed independence bid.
Their
vote could undermine the grip on power that two ruling parties have
enjoyed in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region since it gained semi-autonomous
status 27 years ago.
The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) are facing their first serious
challenge from new parties in Saturday’s nationwide elections to choose a
new prime minister and parliament.
While Prime Minister Haider
al-Abadi appears marginally ahead in a tight race, the new Kurdish
parties are hoping to exploit discontent that has only grown in their
region since their independence dream was shattered.
“We had
everything, and now we have nothing,” said Mohammed Abdelhamid, a
32-year-old Kurdish vegetable seller in Kirkuk. “They led us down this
path, why should I ever vote for them again?”
As the older
generation fades and an economic crisis sharpens demand for change, the
power of the political establishment over their tribal support bases is
waning.
Veteran PUK leader Jalal Talabani, who served as Iraqi
president, died last year, and the KDP’s Masoud Barzani has been
weakened since the failed referendum that he championed.
New
parties are trying to fill the vacuum, chief among them the Coalition
for Democracy and Justice, led by former Kurdish regional prime minister
Barham Salih. A disciple of Talabani, he left the PUK last year and is
campaigning against corruption, a key issue for many Kurdish voters.
“There
is a deep crisis in the Kurdistan Region,” Salih told Reuters. “This
crisis is the result of a failed system of governance based on
partisanship and nepotism in the administration of the country.”
OPPOSITION PARTY
Salih
is expected to take seats from the KDP and PUK, as well as from Gorran,
an opposition party which spun off from the PUK in 2009. The fledgling
New Generation Movement, led by political novice Shaswar Abdulwahid, is
also trying to win seats from establishment candidates but is not
considered a serious contender.
“We’re seeing a weakening of
support for the two governing parties who no longer have anything to say
to their voters,” said Yousif Mohammed, the former KRG parliamentary
speaker banned from Erbil, who now heads Gorran’s list in Sulaimaniya.
The
parties are nervously eyeing Saturday’s election, since its outcome
will be a solid indication of their support base in the post-referendum
era.
This is seen as a vital reality check ahead of regional
elections set for Sept. 30. If the upstart parties do well on Saturday,
many expect the internal balance of power to shift within the KRG come
autumn.
The KDP and PUK dominate the Kurdish regional parliament
and the majority of Kurdish MPs sent to the national parliament have
been from those two parties.
The brief jubilation after last
year’s vote to break away from Baghdad was shattered when the central
government imposed swift punitive measures and retook the oil city of
Kirkuk, which had been held by the Kurds for three years.
Now,
the exuberance of the independence vote has been replaced with the
painful belief that Iraq’s Kurdish leadership gambled away the
hard-fought autonomy which their region has enjoyed since the 1991 Gulf
War.
DISPIRITED
Interviews with dozens of Kurdish voters
show a people left dispirited by the failure of their independence
push, with some saying they will not take part in the ballot.
“I
have no desire to participate in these elections,” said Gulala Jabar
Abdullah, 38, a teacher in Sulaimaniya. “For 27 years, we haven’t seen
anything from the two parties in government.”
There
has been little enthusiasm for the election among Kurds. But in the
multi-ethnic city of Kirkuk, the campaign is in full force with every
inch of public space dominated by candidates’ billboards. In Kirkuk
province, 458 candidates are battling for just 13 seats, a sign of its
importance.
Whatever the results on Saturday, Kurdish MPs sent to
Baghdad will face the mammoth task of mending acrimonious
post-referendum relations with the federal government.
Ties with
Baghdad thawed somewhat in March, when Abadi lifted a ban on
international flights into the Kurdish region and paid a portion of its
civil service salaries.
But negotiations have since stalled over
oil exports and revenue-sharing, worsening the Kurds’ debt problems and
public salary shortfalls after three years during which their share of
the federal budget was withheld in disputes over oil sales.
When
framed as part of a necessary step to independence, Kurds were more
forgiving of austerity measures. That project now blunted, popular
discontent has been rising.
“Every year we have a few months of
salary missing,” said a KRG customs officer. He earns extra money
helping at his father’s shoe shop in Erbil’s main souk. “Life is too
hard.”
In March, thousands of civil servants demonstrated against
salary cuts, including in the KDP strongholds of Erbil and Dohuk for
the first time. They were met with a violent crackdown in which five
people were killed.
“Democracy works everywhere except here,”
said Abu Ghayeb, a longtime KDP supporter in Erbil who said he is too
angry with the Kurdish leadership to vote for them again.
“We
stay poor,” said Abu Ghayeb, a retired police officer who supplements
his meager pension by selling knick-knacks by the roadside, “But they
get richer. How if not by corruption?”
VOTERS SWITCH
Salih’s
Coalition for Democracy and Justice is most likely to capitalize on
this wave of discontent. His messaging hammers home that he will clean
up the corruption which has plagued the governing parties.
While
the PUK and KDP retain significant support, several voters told Reuters
they are switching party affiliation this year, buoyed by Salih’s
message.
“Dr. Barham is a good person and he respects everyone,”
said Naim Mohammed Aziz, 36, a taxi driver in Erbil who used to belong
to the Kurdistan Islamic Group party. “The government doesn’t care about
us anymore, we need someone new.”
In KDP strongholds, his posters are ripped down within hours of being put up, which his supporters take as a compliment.
“It
means the governing parties feel the threat,” said former KRG Trade
Minister Mohammed Raof Mohammed, and Salih’s Erbil campaign manager.
The
New Generation movement has also rattled the establishment. Leading
candidate Rabun Maroof was beaten up while campaigning in Erbil this
week.
The party has corralled some supporters, particularly young people excited by his message of change.
“We
as Kurdish youth, we want to support this movement to help build
Kurdistan anew,” said Aras Anwar, a 20-year-old volunteer campaigner.
Others
have lost patience. “I can’t wait 10 years for change,” said Abdullah,
the Sulaimaniya teacher. She has been on strike for months over years of
unpaid salary.
“To vote or not to vote, it doesn’t matter,” she said. “Our voices won’t count.”
